avatar vs wing men
January 23, 2010
Friday Estimates by Klady - Avatar vs The Wing Men
Legion is, typically, a Sony Screen Gems piece that got dragged around for a bit... and the marketing dept. opened the thing to the mid-20s anyway.
Not so much luck for CBS Films' Extraordinary Measures, which is going to struggle to see a cume of $20 million domestically. (It may actually improve overseas, with the value of Fraser & Ford increasing.) Terrible campaign and a movie whose clips all suggest that it was made on sets from ER on the weekends.
For me, the biggest surprise is the poor opening of The Tooth Fairy. Yes, the Friday number will have a nice multiple for the weekend with as much as $12 million. But after a $23m start for The Game Plan and $18.6m for Are We There Yet?, this number kinda sucks. From my perspective - and it may be limited - Fox didn't sell the entire story arc, just certain gags... and none of them were that great. The Rock in a tutu was just not enough.
Oh... and that little Avatar thing. Another weekend record - for Weekend 6 - though it's about to start falling behind Titanic in this stat, probably next weekend. It's been running ahead of Dark Knight domestically for about a week as the fastest grosser ever, right now about $45 million ahead for 36 days. $1.75 billion worldwide will be passed this weekend... which means it will have doubled the gross of any movie not in the Top 20 all-time, including Spider-Man and Trannys 2. It also puts the film less than $100m away from Titanic. In fact, it may pass Titanic's international record this weekend... and that record was a full $500 million more than any other movie before, putting it well past adjusted gross and 3D bump range, especially since international grosses for the older movies were tiny by percentage of total gross in comparison to the post-70s era.
Posted by dpoland at January 23, 2010 09:15 AM
Comments
"Legion" opened much better than I expected; it should becomes another good maker for Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions Group (which bought "Legion" and then sent it to Screen Gems)
"The Tooth Fairy" opened worse than I expected (The Rock's star power and Fox's distribution led me to have higher expectation)
"To Save a Life" opened respectfully, but it looks like this film won't have "Fireproof"-like result.
Posted by: marychan ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/nav-commenters.gif)
at January 23, 2010 09:51 AM
correction formy first post: [ "Legion" opened much better than I expected; it should becomes another good moneymaker for Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions Group (which bought "Legion" and then sent it to Screen Gems) ]
Posted by: marychan at January 23, 2010 10:06 AM
All the distribution power and star power won't get any young boys to see a movie about The Rock in a tutu. You can show all the hockey stuff you want, but...
Posted by: Rothchild at January 23, 2010 10:07 AM
THE TOOTH FAIRY looked like a SNL parody of a family film.
Posted by: christian at January 23, 2010 10:14 AM
Every time I drive by an Extraordinary Measures billboard I laugh at how constipated Brendan Fraser looks. I'm assuming that's not the medical condition featured in the movie.
Posted by: Krazy Eyes at January 23, 2010 10:14 AM
Measures just looks so cheap. I know it's a CBS film, but at least make it look like a movie and not a made for TV movie. Those lame specials that would run on CBS during the weekend didn't instill any confidence either.
Posted by: NickF at January 23, 2010 11:06 AM
Measures looks performance driven and free of excess. That's exactly what a film of that kind should look like.
Fuck the haters, the movie doesn't look any worse than "My Sister's Keeper".
Posted by: Gonzo Knight at January 23, 2010 11:54 AM
You can make a performance driven movie and not have it look like cheap garbage though. Even an Apatow movie like Funny People can look really nice when you have a good DP. The weird thing is, the DP has done other good work before, what happened this time?
Posted by: The Big Perm at January 23, 2010 12:03 PM
so....
nothing on your website about
the passing of the great Jean Simmons.
what did she ever do to you?
Posted by: seattlemoviegoer at January 23, 2010 12:04 PM
Avatar will pass TDK today, the worldwide for TITANIC by Monday or Tuesday. But with another less than 20% drop this weekend, only the discovery that watching it decreases penis size in men and breast size in women will keep it from toppling TITANIC from the domestic No.1 position.
It will be at $550M Sunday and $562M Thursday. After next weekend, AVATAR should be exiting January with about $590M.
So my question is, DP, why be coy about the fact that in February it will become the highest grossing film of all time on both charts. And Cameron becomes the first director to have both the first and second films on those lists.
Unless someone doubts it can make that last $11M...
Posted by: Deathtongue_Groupie at January 23, 2010 01:40 PM
posted by navn @ 5:33 AM
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